Are you secretly predicting a recession?

TikTok's 'recession indicators' (frozen pizza, instant noodles, expensive lipstick, Labubus, gold) get a properly economic once-over. Taylor explains the logic behind each, hunkering down rather than simply cutting back, then does something valuable for students: she pulls the indicators apart, noting the evidence is mixed, that they cannot say when a recession will hit, and that they missed shocks like Covid. The skirt-length, skyscraper and men's-underpants indices add colour. Excellent for the business cycle, consumer behaviour in downturns, and above all for teaching correlation versus causation and the limits of forecasting. Accessible to all students and a strong evaluation prompt for macro essays.  Read here